Professor Menelaos Karanasos
I completed my PhD in 1997. I joined Keele University as a Lecturer in Financial Economics in September 1996. From 1997 - 2004 I was a Lecturer in Financial Economics at the University of York. I was appointed Professor of Financial Economics at Newcastle University in September 2004. I moved to Brunel in September 2005. Qualifications: PhD Financial Economics (University of London) MSc Economics (University of London) BSc Economics (Athens University of Economics and Business)
My Work, Life & Interests
My research has produced substantial outcomes in both theoretical foundations and practical applications.
I highlight the word: substantial!
Developing effective techniques and methodologies for analyzing and estimating stochastic time series models is one of the main objective of my research. I am active in various domains related to this goal, including growth and financial development, and I strongly wish to continue doing research in the field of applied macroeconomics, empirical finance and time series econometrics. Although, as Niels Bohr (among others) once said, it is difficult to predict, especially the future (e.g., Woody Allen said: it is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future), here is my three year future plan: Ha Ha Ha!!!: Three Year Future Plan_HaHaHa
I used a three year prediction horizon just to keep the laughter within bounds
After a hard day’s work I always end my day with the following thought:
“My life is nothing more than a big round zero”
A thought that I think is neither positive nor negative.
My recent work on the Greek Dra(ch)ma: 5 Years of Austerity
Published: “POLITICAL ECONOMY PERSPECTIVES ON THE GREEK CRISIS”, Ed. I. Bournakis and C. Tsoukis.
Abstract: In this paper we summarize the opinion of three renowned economists (alphabetically), namely Paul De Grauwe, Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz, on the Eurozone crisis as well as the Greek case. Krugman (2010) argues that the creation of the common currency was a terrible mistake while according to Stiglitz (2015e) and De Grauwe (2015) euro is poorly designed and the European Central Bank ( ECB) focuses single-mindedly in inflation and it is not provided with the adequate tools to address unemployment. These weaknesses in the designs of the euro and the ECB damage Europe’s prospects (Greek ones even more). Troika used bad models and forecasts and the result of the macro-policies it demanded was a deep Greek depression without end, which possibly will lead to even greater economic, political and social chaos. The cost in human su§ering has already been too high. Similar austerity programmes (and structural reforms) imposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the East Asian countries in the late 1990s had devastating effects. Greece might end up as a depleted country-one that has sold all its assets, and whose bright young people have emigrated. In support of their claims we provide evidence of the negative impacts of the austerity plans on the Greek economy for a period covering 2010-2014. The Greek disaster (tragedy) is a very short story, just a few paragraphs (and only five years) long, and it goes like that…
Amid the chaos Greece faces a Herculean task
People clash with police in the streets during a demonstration against the new austerity measures on Sunday: the Telegraph, Thursday 31 December 2015
The Ancient Greeks imagined chaos like Great mouth. Gaia (“earth”), Tartar (an underworld dungeon and at the some time a monster), “Eros, Erebus (like Tartar) and Nycta (“night”) were born with Chaos. Gaia has given Ouranes and this pair filled world with creatures:
Many Greek punk groups (with their lyrics and songs) describe the GREEK CHAOS:
Time series analysts should remember (and always have in mind) the following famous quote by George E.P Box:
All models are wrong, and there are (at least) 7 sources of model risk: Tuning Finance
What if Today (someday in December 2015)…………….
even for a tiny tiny (in significance) acceptance decision from the Journal of Multinational Financial Management:
This paper investigates the information content of trading volume and its relationship with range-based volatility in the Indian stock market for the period 1995-2007. We examine the dynamics of the twthis paper is o variables and their respective uncertainties using a bivariate dual long-memory model. We distinguish between volume traded before and after the introduction of futures and options trading. We find that in all three periods the impact of both the number of trades and the value of shares traded on volatility is negative. This result is consistent with the argument that the activity of informed traders is inversely related to volatility when the marketplace has increased liquidity, an increasing number of active investors and high consensus among investors when new information is released. We also find that (i) the introduction of futures trading leads to a decrease in spot volatility, (ii) volume decreases after the introduction of option contracts and, (iii) there are significant expiration day effects on both the value of shares traded and volatility series: TradingVolume2016.pdf ( JMFM, 2016).
BUT I AM HAPPY:
“Inflation convergence in the EMU and the link between inflation differentials and their uncertainty”, the Journal of Empirical Finance, 2016 JEF2017.pdf:
We study the convergence properties of inflation rates among the countries of the European Monetary Union over the period 1980–2013. Recently developed panel unit root/stationarity tests cannot reject the stationarity hypothesis. This implies that some countries have been in the process of converging absolutely or relatively. By using a clustering algorithm we statistically detect three absolute convergence clubs in the pre-euro period, which comprise early accession countries. In particular, Luxembourg clusters with Austria and Belgium, while a second sub-group includes Germany and France and the third The Netherlands and Finland. We also detect two separate clusters of early accession countries in the post-1997 period: a sub-group with Germany, Austria, Belgium and Luxembourg, and one with France and Finland. For the rest of the countries/cases we find evidence of divergent behavior. Robustness is checked by testing pairwise convergence in a Bayesian framework. The outcome broadly confirms our findings.
My recent work on the: The Legacy of a Fractured Eurozone: the Greek Dra(ch)ma Fractured Eurozone
Geoforum, 2018, 93, 11-21
Abstract: This paper addresses neoliberal origins of the acute geoeconomic and social crisis that was inflicted on Greece since 2010 with the unleashing of the 3 consecutive bailout plans and the implementation of fierce austerity policies. We further scrutinize the composition of the soaring Greek debt and most importantly, the unsettling utilization of the troika loans for the 2010-15 period. For the first time in the literature, we provide evidence that the vast bulk of the loans went overwhelmingly not to benefiting a “profligate” Greek state but to avoiding the write-downs of bad loans made by reckless creditors (mainly, German and French banks) to the Greek government and private banks. We propose the temporary adoption of a parallel currency in the form of government IOUs, together with other drastic measures to reboot the ailing Greek economy inside the Eurozone.
Greek Crisis Has Seen a Rise in Suicides and Depression: NEWSWEEK
A pedestrian walks through empty streets on Sunday by a mural in Athens, Greece. As the nation deals with crippling debt and low employment rates, a rise in depression has followed.
New research using official statistics shows a 35 percent jump in the suicide rate during the first two years of austerity programs, with researchers linking every percentage point in additional unemployment to an incremental increase in the suicide rate among working-age men. Reported depression rates also have increased from 3.3 to 8.2 percent between 2008 and 2011.
The number of Greek citizens who have quitted their lives have increased. Therefore, life unemployment has risen.
Suicide levels (Greece)
More details about me can be found in my Curriculum Vitae: CV(March_2020) I also contribute to the following site for Econometrics: Econometricopedia After being at Brunel University for 10 years I have to say that the name says it all. As the band “The Men That Will Not Be Blamed For Nothing” mentioned in their song titled “Brunel”: “A lot of men tried and a lot of men died. But I am not a lot of men”, Isambard Kingdom Brunel:
Almost at the same time (that is in 2005) I became a koala fun:
Do people get wiser (and more productive) as they get older? Some people yes (e.g., Peter Phillips), some they even get the Nobel prize (e.g., Rob Engle). But other people as they get older they are less satisfied with sleep and more tired during the day. For better or worse I belong to this second category:
I organize an annual (BMRC) conference on Macro and Financial Economics and Econometrics:
and Paul De Grauwe’s presentation in May 2015:
The Rulers of the World
In Greek mythology the Olympian Gods, after overthrowing their ancestors (the Titans), became the rulers of the World (Cosmos).
In 2007 a slow (but continues and persistent) process started during which the Greek poets, and in particular those of the generation of the thirties (see: Greek Modernism and Beyond , Odysseus Elytis and the Thirties Generation in Modern Greek Poetry , Anthology of Modern Greek Poetry ), became my spiritual fathers: the rulers of my esoteric world, which lies at the core of my existence.
‘The statues are not the ruins—we are the ruins.’ George Seferis:
“For once more, my country and me, we became uniform”, Odysseas Elytis (with English subtitles)
“The first two words, of my first poem, of my first published book are, Eros and Archipelagos. By an unspecified way, those two words have declared, but with certain extensions brought by maturity, all the rest of my poetic work which has followed.” Odysseas Elytis.
And again a comment on the referees who have rejected (or will reject) my papers:
I curse them to:
LEARN HOW TO SIGN THE OLYMPIC ANTHEM IN GREEK
I bet that all these referees are ignorant (otherwise they wouldn’t have rejected my papers) of the fact that:
The Olympic Hymn (Greek: Ολυμπιακός Ύμνος, Olympiakós Ýmnos), also known informally as the Olympic Anthem, is a choral cantata by opera composer Spyridon Samaras, with lyrics by Greek poet Kostis Palamas. Both poet and composer were the choice of the Greek Demetrius Vikelas, who was the first President of the International Olympic Committee.
The anthem was performed for the first time for the ceremony of opening of the first edition at the 1896 Summer Olympics in Anthems, Greece. In the following years, every hosting nation commissioned to various musicians the composition of a specific Olympic hymn for their own edition of the games.
The anthem by Samaras and Palamas was declared the official Olympic Anthem by the International Olympic Committee in 1958 at the 54th Session of the IOC in Tokyo, Japan. Since 1960, it has been used at the opening ceremonies of each Olympic Games, and also during its closing ceremonies as well.
LYRICS (Original Greek):
Αρχαίο Πνεύμα αθάνατο, αγνέ πατέρα
του ωραίου, του μεγάλου και του αληθινού,
Κατέβα, φανερώσου κι άστραψε εδώ πέρα
στη δόξα της δικής σου γης και τ’ ουρανού.
Στο δρόμο και στο πάλεμα και στο λιθάρι
Στων ευγενών αγώνων λάμψε την ορμή
Και με το αμάραντο στεφάνωσε κλωνάρι
και σιδερένιο πλάσε και άξιο το κορμί. (δις)
Κάμποι, βουνά και θάλασσες φέγγουνε μαζί σου
σαν ένας λευκοπόρφυρος μέγας ναός.
Και τρέχει στο ναό εδώ προσκυνητής σου (δις)
Αρχαίο Πνεύμα αθάνατο, κάθε λαός. (δις)
English Translation (literal):
O Ancient immortal Spirit, pure father
Of beauty, of greatness and of truth,
Descend, reveal yourself and flash like lightning here,
within the glory of your own earth and sky.
At running and at wrestling and at throwing,
Shine in the momentum of noble contests,
And crown with the unfading branch
And make the body worthy and ironlike. (twice)
Plains, mountains and seas glow with you
Like a white-and-purple great temple,
And hurries at the temple here, your pilgrim, (twice)
O Ancient immortal Spirit, every nation. (twice)
English Translation (Free):
Immortal spirit of antiquity
Father of the true, beautiful and good
Descend, appear, shed over us thy light
Upon this ground and under this sky
Which has first witnessed thy unperishable fame
Give life and animation to these noble games!
Throw wreaths of fadeless flowers to the victors
In the race and in the strife
Create in our breasts, hearts of steel!
In thy light, plains, mountains and seas
Shine in a roseate hue and form a vast temple
To which all nations throng to adore thee
Oh immortal spirit of antiquity!
…And after I have cursed them…I forgive them:
Forgive them father for they know not what they do
Forgive them father for they know not what they do
Beware the false motives of others
They say all the right things to gain their position
Then use your kindness as their ammunition
To shoot you down in the name of ambition, they do
Why for you to increase, I must decrease?
If I treat you kindly does it mean that I’m weak?
Men who lack conscience will even lie to themselves, to themselves
A friend once said, and I found to be true
That everyday people, they lie to God too
So what makes you think, that they won’t lie to you
Forgive them father for they know not what they do
Forgive them, forgive them
Forgive them father for they know not what they do
Forgive them, forgive them
In my spare time I edit and promote the poetry of Menelaos Karagiozis as well as contributing to his website Hellenic Poetry A biographical note on the author: Not a lot is known about the life of Menelaos Karagiozis. He was probably born in Athens in the sixties. Now lives abroad, possibly in the United Kingdom somewhere. I met my namesake Menelao Karagiozi on the Greek island of Nisyros in the summer of 2007 and a few years later in Oxford where he gave me the interesting task of trying to publish his poetry. Karagiozis’ first poetry collection entitled “Ισαξιες Προσευχης” was published by the publishing company Ακακια. It is also available on Amazon and on Waterstone
See the link in the Hellenic Poetry site: Koalas for more details.
My talk in ΤΕΧΝΟΠΟΛΙΣ:
For translations of Greek Poetry in English see the website of Hellenic Poetry. For example, the link for Odysseus Elytis (the 1979 Nobel laureate) poetry anthology: Elytis’ Poetry. From the book “The collected Poems of Odysseus Elytis” Translated by Jeffrey Carson and Nikos Sarris, Revised and Expanded Collection, 1997, 2004, The John Hopkins University Press:
I am alpha years old and European to the middle
of the Alps or Pyrenees
I never touched the snow
there’s not one who can represent me
war and peace ate me on both sides
what remained endures still
till when friends
must we lift up the excommunicated past
filled with kings and subjects
I feel like a seduced cypress
to which not even a tombstone remained
only empty plots rocks stone enclosures
and the inconsolable northwind
beating yonder on the factories’ high walls
enclosed there we all work as
elsewhere in History
years say spilled crude oil
P.S. But there is a different version: don’t believe me
the more I age the less I understand
experience untaught me the world
The Monogram, Odysseus Elytis:
I mourn the sun and I mourn the time that comes
Without us and I sing of others who’ve passed
If this is true
The waves have heard of you
How you caress, how you kiss
Around the neck, around the bay
How you wHisper the “what” and
Always we the light and the
That I no longer have anything else
Within these four walls, this ceiling and floor
But to call for you and for my own voice to
It’s early still in the world my love
To speak of you and me.
It’s early still in this world, do you hear me?
They haven’t tamed the beast, do you hear me?
My wasted blood and sharp, hear me, knife
Like a ram running across the heavens
Breaking the tails of comets, hear me
I am, hear me
I love you, hear me
Will bury us, hear me, and the day will
A thousand years later when we will be,
Shining fossils, hear me
For the heartlessness of men to burnish, hear
And throw above them in a thousand pieces
And on the waters one by one, hear me
I measure my bitterpebbles, hear me
And time is a great church, hear me
My favourite hobby (although it can be very dangerous) is Koala watching:
“In 2012 koalas were listed as a ‘vulnerable species’ in three Australian states: Queensland, New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory. There are estimated to be just 80,000 to 200,000 koalas left in the wild in Australia. Among the problems that threaten them is habitat destruction. Many trees and woodland areas are being cut down for new buildings, farmland, mining projects or roads leaving koalas and lots of other wildlife with a lack of suitable habitat, food, shelter and safety… See the book “Koala a historical biography”.
Influenced by the Koala culture I am going to reveal to you a secret! Who is the love of my life:
“A peculiar interest always attaches to humour. There is no quality of the human mind about which its possessor is more sensitive than the sense of humour. A man will freely confess that he has no ear for music, or no taste for fiction, or even no interest in religion.
But I have yet to see the man who announces that he has no sense of humour. In point of fact, every man is apt to think himself possessed of an exceptional gift in this direction, and that even if his humour does not express itself in the power either to make a joke or to laugh at one, it none the less consists in a peculiar insight or inner light superior to that of other people.” Canadian Humorist, Stephen Leacock (1961; p.170).
I AM A BIG SPA (GERMAN SPA IN PARTICULAR) FAN AND I HAVE TO ADMIT IT: A SPA ADDICT!
It is a great way to deal with the stresses of modern life (rejections from 4* and 3* Journals, poor teaching evaluations, admin overload, etc…).
Some of my favorite GERMAN SPA are:
The No. 1 (by far): CLAUDIUS THERM IN COLOGNE!
The No. 2 it is not in Germany. It is in Belgium! The Thermes de Spa in the city SPA!
The SPA have saved my life:
Without the SPA I would have committed suicide:
which is always an option!
Known as the birth place of the modern SPA this small town boast an impressive history of attracting European aristocracy (me for example!)
Below it’s me while I am experiencing the benefits of relaxation and healing waters at Thermes de SPA in beautiful Spa, Belgium!
Some other of my favorite SPA include:
Friedrichsbad in Baden-Baden:
BaderHaus in Bad Kreuznach
Wilkommen in Bad Kreuznach!